Is This Time Different?
GameStop stock soared to all-time highs last week on the wings of social media traders. The Reddit traders put the short squeeze on GME and almost destroyed two high profile short-selling firms. At one point, GameStop had risen more than 1,600%! On Twitter, Reddit Investors said, "It is the common man vs. the suits." They added, "I've talked to a lot of suits this weekend, and 90% of them are extremely concerned this debacle with meme stocks is going to blow up the market in the near-term."
As the social media warriors tried to "stick it to the man," trading on the Robinhood app exploded, and Wall Street made even more money. Citadel is the primary trader for Robinhood and other firms, and last year they made $6.7 billion trading "free" stocks. The more individuals trade, the more money Wall Street makes. One former Wall Street veteran told me: "We are in the moving business, not the storage business." Wall Street loves activity, and it doesn't care about your moral victories or if you want to "hold the line." Since GME peaked last Thursday, it has dropped 80%. John Maynard Keynes said, "The market can remain irrational, longer than you can remain solvent."
Is it true? Will a group of day trading, social media experts bring down Wall Street? Let's review some history.
The Crash of 1929
The roaring twenties was a decade of excess, showcased by F.Scott Fitzgerald's The Great Gatsby. The era was ripe for speculation following the Spanish Flu, and traders bid up stocks by leveraging their accounts ten to one. According to Macrotrends, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 449% from 1921 to 1929. Towards the end of the bull market, several high profile stocks like Anaconda Copper, GE, GM, Montgomery Ward, New York Central, RCA, Westinghouse, and Woolworth rose an average 158% from March 3, 1928, to September 3, 1929. Less than two months later, the group fell 73% as the stock market crashed on October 29, 1929. After the crash, the government established the Securities and Exchange Commission to protect individual investors. The Dow Jones did not breach its pre-crash high until 1959, thirty years later!
The nifty-fifty was a group of large companies that investors loved to own during the 1960s and 1970s. These momentum stocks were made popular by the legendary investor George Tsai who managed the Fidelity Capital and Manhattan Funds. The nifty-fifty stocks traded to excessive valuations, and the PE ratio for these stocks climbed to more than 100. A few of the names included Coca-Cola, IBM, Polaroid, and Xerox.The party ended during the market correction of 1973 and 1974 when stocks fell more than 40%. The Dow Jones declined 71% from 1965 to 1982, and It would take fourteen years for the Dow to eclipse its 1965 top.
The Tech Wreck
Technology stocks soared during the mid-nineties as the internet brought elaborate trading tools to the masses. The internet turned individuals into trading machines with access to websites managed by E*Trade, Schwab, and TD Ameritrade. If you need proof of the excess, please Google E*Trade investment commercials. From January 1995 to February 1, 1999, the Dow climbed 144%, and the NASDAQ soared 233%. Stocks like Qualcomm, Enron, Iomega, Worldcom, Global Crossing, and pets.com mesmerized day traders. A new paradigm arrived until the market corrected. The NASDAQ tumbled 70%, and the Dow Jones fell more than 32%. The tech-wreck brought the party to a halt. It took the NASDAQ more than fifteen years to recover its all-time high!
Boom and bust cycles are part of investing. Pursuing quick riches through day trading is fleeting, and it only lasts a few years, at best. It took the stock market an average of nineteen years to recover the losses from the Great Depression, Nifty-Fifty correction, and Tech Wreck.
Is this time different? I doubt it. Individuals who trade without a plan to chase short-term riches will suffer when the market corrects. Long after the GameStop fiasco is over, large Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citadel will still be standing.
Be careful. Trade lightly.
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time is different'" ~ Sir John Templeton
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises by Charles P. Kindleberger
Irrational Exuberance by Robert J. Shiller
Against The Gods by Peter L. Bernstein
Barbarians at the Gate by Bryan Burrough
The Big Short by Michael Lewis
The Panic of 1907 by Robert F. Bruner
February 2, 2021
Bill Parrott, CFP®, is the President and CEO of Parrott Wealth Management in Austin, Texas. Parrott Wealth Management is a fee-only, fiduciary, registered investment advisor firm. Our goal is to remove complexity, confusion, and worry from the investment and financial planning process so our clients can pursue a life of purpose. Our firm does not have an asset or fee minimum, and we work with anybody who needs financial help regardless of age, income, or asset level. PWM's custodian is TD Ameritrade, and our annual fee starts at .5% of your assets and drops depending on the level of your assets.
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 https://www.wsj.com/articles/gamestop-frenzy-puts-spotlight-on-trading-giant-citadel-securities-11612089000?mod=searchresults_pos4&page=1, Alexander Osipovich, January 31, 2021
 Only Yesterday by Frederick Lewis Allen
 https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/nifty-fifty-50.asp ,Barclay Palmer, March 24, 2020.